Performance

Performance is shown in the layer where it was earned.

Backtested research, prospective shadow observations, and live capital are separate records and are never blended.

The backtest is a reconstructed historical simulation.

The prospective public record began with the first HGD Record.

A live-capital record does not yet exist.

Current HGD RecordHGD Record 002
Public certified decisions2 certified records published
Could the rules have worked?
Performance Layer

Backtested Research

2021-09-05 – 2025-11-23222 observations on the approved filtered validation window
Static historical rules replay of the approved HGD backtested record. No capital was at risk. This is reconstructed research, not prospective shadow performance and not live capital.
Maximum Drawdown−10.45%
Annualized Return18.47%
Annualized Volatility8.07%
Return/Volatility2.14

Backtested performance is a historical rules replay. It is not shadow operations performance and it is not live capital performance.

Evidence Figure

Growth of $100

Reconstructed research series only. No certified prospective points are appended.

Reconstructed research Growth of $100Approved reconstructed HGD research series compared with date-aligned SPY, AGG, QQQ, and IWM reconstructed benchmark series.$50$75$100$125$150$175$200$225Sep 20212022202320242025Nov 2025
HGD BacktestedEnd 209
SPYEnd 154
AGGEnd 99
QQQEnd 159
IWMEnd 109
Growth of $100, rebased to the start of the approved reconstructed research window. Benchmarks are independently rebased and date-aligned. This chart is not prospective shadow or live-capital performance.
Evidence Figure

Drawdown Through Time

Derived from the same reconstructed research series used for Growth of $100.

Reconstructed research Drawdown Through TimeDrawdown is calculated from the approved Growth of $100 HGD series as current wealth divided by prior running peak minus one.−20.00%−10.00%0.00%Sep 20212022202320242025Nov 2025
HGD BacktestedMax −10.45%
Reported Max Drawdown−10.45%
Reconciliation0.00%
Drawdown is wealth divided by prior running peak minus one. The plotted series uses the same date range and HGD values as Growth of $100; reconciliation is shown against the governed Max Drawdown figure.
Current public state
Are the rules being followed?
Performance Layer

Prospective Shadow

HGD Record 001 established the public series; return observations pending0 public return-bearing observations
The prospective public record began with HGD Record 001. Return observations appear only after the required observation window exists.
Public certified records2
Return observations0
Index historyNot initialized

Internal certified baselines are governance artifacts. They are not public records or return-bearing observations.

Is capital actually at risk?
Performance Layer

Live Capital Record

UnavailableUnavailable
No live-capital record is currently maintained.

This layer remains separate from Backtested Research and Prospective Shadow.

Prospective Shadow

Public observation layer

Public certified records2
Return observations0
Index historyNot initialized
Benchmark historyNot initialized
ImplementationNot certified
Internal baselineRetained outside public reporting

The prospective public record begins with the first published certified HGD Record. No public return history, index history, or benchmark history is available yet.

June 26 and July 3 rehearsal shadow artifacts are preserved locally as historical evidence but excluded from certified prospective performance.

No prospective chart is rendered until certified return-bearing observations exist.
Cross-Layer Note

Why the layers stay separate

Reconstructed research, prospective shadow, and live capital are separate evidence layers and must never be blended into one number.

Each layer answers one question and no other: whether the rules are coherent, whether they are followed without hindsight, whether they hold when capital is actually committed. None of these questions can substitute for the others, and none of these records can stand in for the other two.

This is also why a young layer is shown as young, not padded with a longer neighbor's history.

Integrity

How the record is maintained

Each layer is maintained the same way regardless of what it shows.

Publication
Decisions are published before the period they govern closes.
Record Linkage
Prospective points are unavailable. Public performance points will link only to published HGD Records.
Layer Separation
Public output remains layer-separated and non-blended.
Unavailable Data
No pending return row is emitted as public performance.

Three layers of evidence. Reported where they were earned. Never blended, never estimated.